Peterson Institute for International Economics Update Newsletter
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PIIE Update Newsletter
February 13, 2013

"Washington's premier think tank on the global economy"
—The Washington Post
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FEATURED
 
  Event Webcast
The Economics of Abenomics—A Pre-Summit Assessment
   
  The Peterson Institute will hold a high-level conference on Friday, February 15, to assess "Abenomics," the economic policy initiatives of Japan's new government, ahead of the upcoming Obama-Abe Summit. Professor Koichi Hamada of Yale, the primary architect of the Abe government's economic program, will lead off the conference, followed by Dr. Posen's assessment of the macro side. A second panel including contributions by former US Trade Representative Clayton Yeutter and PIIE Senior Fellow Jeffrey J. Schott will tackle Japan's trade policy, including its absence from the current Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations. This event will be streamed live from 9:30 a.m. to 12:00 noon EST, Friday, February 15.

>> View the webcast on February 15

  Policy Brief 13-2
A Blueprint for Rebalancing the Chinese Economy
[pdf]

Nicholas R. Lardy and Nicholas Borst
   
  Nicholas R. LardyNicholas Borst The task of economic rebalancing is likely to demand much of the new Xi Jinping–Li Keqiang administration's energy and attention. Rebalancing entails implementation of large changes to fundamental economic policies, such as removing lingering price controls and opening up the closed financial system. It will also bring about a shift away from the economic winners of the past decade, namely manufacturers and property developers, towards private consumers and the service sector. Despite these challenges, rebalancing can be achieved while sustaining moderately fast economic growth.

>> Read full policy brief [pdf]

  Policy Brief 13-3
Debt Restructuring and Economic Prospects in Greece
[pdf]

William R. Cline
   
  William R. Cline Severe recession in 2010–12 drove the need for sovereign debt reduction in Greece, despite a massive cut in government spending. The 2012 restructuring cut privately-held debt by about 50 percent, but much debt was exempt (IMF, euro area governments, ECB), and new borrowing was needed to recapitalize banks. In December an official sector package of lower interest rates, buybacks, and remittance of ECB profits on Greek bonds boosted total relief by about one third. Nonetheless, even under favorable conditions the ratio of debt to GDP is unlikely to be far below 120 percent by 2020, limiting market access for a country that has restructured with deep haircuts. Although Greek borrowing needs are now covered for several years, more relief from the official sector thus seems likely to be needed in the future.

>> Read full policy brief [pdf]


Peterson Perspectives Interviews

audio  Forthcoming: Listen to analysis of the State of the Union address in our Peterson Perspectives Interview series on February 14.

audio  Is the World on a Binge of Devaluation? Part I
Joseph E. Gagnon and William R. Cline discuss the criteria for judging currency activities by the United States, China, Japan, Switzerland, and others.

audio  Is the World on a Binge of Devaluation? Part II
Joseph E. Gagnon and William R. Cline say that, judging by the past several years, the dangers of currency manipulation are not widespread at the moment.


Recent Blog Posts

RealTime Economic Issues Watch   China Economic Watch    North Korea:  Witness to Transformation
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Why the Irish Bank Deal Matters—Especially for Cyprus

Latvia's Parliament Votes for the Euro

Will Immigration Reform Overlook America's Need for Skilled Labor?

US-Russia Relations: Time for a Time Out

The ECB: The Last Central Bank Standing?
  Can China Meet its Minimum Wage Goal?

China's New Income Inequality Plan

A Blueprint for Rebalancing the Chinese Economy

China Rebalancing Update—Q4 2012

A Shrinking Leviathan: State Employment in China Looms Smaller Than Expected
  The Special Rapporteur's Report: Changing the Debate on North Korean Human Rights at the UN

The Test: Reviewing the Options

Reports of North Koreans killed in Nigeria

Update: The "We begin bombing in five minutes" contest

Mort Halperin's Grand Bargain II: Doubts and a Response from Peter Hayes


PIIE Noted in the News and on the Web

The Charlie Rose Show
The Outlook for the US and UK Economies
Adam S. Posen joins Charlie Rose to discuss how to balance austerity and stimulus policies, comparing how the United States and the United Kingdom have responded to the global economic crisis.

The Washington Post
Japan Is Caught in a Stimulus Trap
In his column, Robert Samuelson discusses the efforts by Japan's new prime minister to revive the Japanese economy, citing PIIE President Adam S. Posen's view of why Japan has struggled economically for two decades.

The Washington Post
Obama's Six Options for Dealing with North Korea (They're All Terrible)
The list of six options is adopted from and credited to Stephan Haggard's recent post on the Peterson Institute's blog, North Korea: Witness to Transformation.

Fox Business
Eurozone Will Survive
Ahead of the European Union's budget summit, Robert B. Zoellick says he believes the euro area will survive and that the crisis has stabilized.



Preview of Our Next Issue

Op-ed
A New US International Economic Strategy
Robert B. Zoellick

Op-ed
Cameron's Critics Should Extol His European Vision
Robert B. Zoellick

Policy Brief
Reengineering EMU for an Uncertain World [pdf]
Angel Ubide

 
 
In This Issue
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Charlie Rose Show
Adam S. Posen The Outlook for the US and UK Economies

Adam S. Posen joins Charlie Rose to discuss how to balance austerity and stimulus policies, comparing how the United States and the United Kingdom have responded to the global economic crisis.


Event
Anat Admati The Bankers' New Clothes: What's Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It

Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig discuss their new book on banking reforms and how to shore up financial systems and prevent future financial crises.
podcast

State of the Union
Forthcoming: Listen to analysis of the State of the Union address from David J. Stockton and Jeffrey J. Schott in our Peterson Perspectives Interview series on February 14.


Featured Book
Understanding the Trans-Pacific Partnership Understanding the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Jeffrey J. Schott
Barbara Kotschwar
Julia Muir
podcast

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