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audio Peterson Perspectives Interview Is Unemployment Worse than it Appears?
William R. Cline — July 31, 2014
William R. Cline says the decline in labor participation, which some say has occurred because workers are discouraged from seeking jobs, is largely due to the retirement of the 'baby boom' generation.

China Economic Watch China Rebalancing Update – Q2 2014
Nicholas Borst — July 31, 2014
With all the relevant economic data out, we can now update our rebalancing indicators for the second quarter of 2014: 1. Urban Disposable Income Growing Faster than GDP The gap between GDP growth and urban disposable income growth expanded in the second quarter of 2014. The ga ...

Working Paper 14-4 Demographic versus Cyclical Influences on US Labor Force Participation [pdf]
William R. Cline and Jared Nolan — July 31, 2014
This paper applies time series analysis to distinguish between cyclical and demographic causes of the decline of the labor force participation rate. Some public discussions suggest that the decline of US unemployment from its 2009 peak of 10 percent to about 6 percent by mid-2014 grossly exaggerates recovery because most of the decline reflects the exit of discouraged workers from the labor force.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Tariffs Hit Poor Americans Hardest
Tyler Moran — July 31, 2014
Raising or maintaining tariffs on imports is called protectionism for a reason. The goal is to protect domestic industry and jobs from lower priced foreign goods. But often forgotten is the impact of the US tariff structure on the wallets of American consumers when they visit shopping malls and h ...

Working Paper 14-3 Oil Prices and Interstate Conflict Behavior [pdf]
Cullen S. Hendrix — July 31, 2014
Anecdotal evidence suggests high oil prices embolden leaders in oil-rich states to pursue more aggressive foreign policies. This article tests the conjecture in a sample of 153 countries for the time period 1947–2001.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch NAFTA Rejoinder: The US Effects Are Clearly Positive for Most Workers (Part II)
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Cathleen Cimino — July 30, 2014
The Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) is challenging an op-ed in the Financial Times by Adam S. Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, with a litany of familiar denunciations of trade agreements. The CEPR blog post maintains that trade agreements with Mexico and other lower-income economies increase US unemployment, suppress wages, and foster US trade deficits.

North Korea: Witness to Transformation Inflation is Moderating
Marcus Noland — July 30, 2014
Normally one thinks of inflation as a bad thing, but in the Post-Global Financial Crisis Era of Unconventional Monetary Policy a number of countries have faced debilitating deflation and have had trouble generating moderate increases in their price levels.

China Economic Watch US Tech Firms Face Chinese Hurdles
Sean Miner — July 29, 2014
Edward Snowden’s revelations, along with cyber-espionage cases and China’s IT protectionist tendencies have combined to create a storm for US tech firms.  Chinese investigations and sanctions directed at foreign IT firms started more than a year ago and have grown more frequent in recent months. Fol ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch India's WTO Problem—A Proposal
Arvind Subramanian — July 29, 2014
After more than a decade of failure to break an impasse on a new global trade round, the World Trade Organization (WTO) managed last year in Bali to accomplish the modest feat of adopting a new Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), establishing faster and more efficient customs procedures to encour ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch The Hague Penalizes Russia for Yukos Confiscation
Anders Aslund — July 28, 2014
In a major new blow to President Vladimir Putin, a three-member Arbitral Tribunal of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has ruled unanimously that the Russian Federation must pay $51.6 billion to shareholders of the defunct Russian oil company Yukos, which Russia seized ten years ago ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch NAFTA Rejoinder: The Effects are Positive (Part I)
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Cathleen Cimino — July 28, 2014
A new post by the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) takes issue with the Peterson Institute Policy Brief " ...

China Economic Watch Let the Good Times Roll: China’s Growing Influence in South Korea
Kevin Stahler and , Kent Troutman — July 25, 2014
Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Seoul was remarkable for a number of reasons. It was the first in which a Chinese president visited the South before the North, no doubt a thread which the Kim regime took note. It also highlighted both leaders’ ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch The Resignation of the Ukrainian Government Was a Welcome Step
Anders Aslund — July 25, 2014
Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk of Ukraine announced his government's resignation on July 24 after two of the three coalition partners, the Udar Party of Vitali Klitschko, mayor of Kiev, and the nationalist Svoboda, withdrew from the ruling coalition. Yatseniuk represents the Fatherland party of ...

Op-ed The Errors of Conservatives Obscure the Case for Trade
Adam S. Posen — July 22, 2014
Twenty years after Bill Clinton, former US president, signed the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), its very name chills the spines of US voters and congressmen alike.

Op-ed India: Land-Shackled II
Devesh Kapur, T. V. Somanathan and Arvind Subramanian — July 22, 2014
The authors propose four policy reforms to ensure land facilitates rather than impedes development in India.

RECENT EVENTS

 

Bill Shorten

Global Growth: Trade, Equity, and Opportunity

Bill Shorten, member of the Australian parliament, speaks at PIIE on the effects of global growth.

William R. Cline

The Road to Global Prosperity

Michael Mandelbaum, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, discusses his new book at PIIE.

Ambassador Eduardo Medina-Mora

Mexico and the United States: Building on the Benefits of NAFTA

On the 20th anniversary of NAFTA, PIIE, the Embassy of Mexico, and the McKinsey Global Institute cohost a conference to present new research challenging false claims and exaggerations about the agreement's harms.

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