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Working Paper 14-9 Sustainability of Public Debt in the United States and Japan [pdf]
William R. Cline — October 30, 2014
To avoid further increases in the ratio of public debt to GDP over the next decade, average annual primary deficits will need to be reduced by about 0.75 percent of GDP in the United States and by about 3 percent of GDP in Japan from their mid-2014 baselines.

North Korea: Witness to Transformation Slave to the Blog: the Broken Promises Edition
Marcus Noland — October 30, 2014
Well, we all know the three great lies: the check is in the mail; I’m from the government, and I’m here to help; and…uh, the third one probably isn't suitable for a family blog. Anyhow, today’s post is organized around three ongoing stories of people not doing what they’re supposed to. I ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Whither Europe's Banks after the Stress Test?
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — October 29, 2014
The new comprehensive assessement of the European banking sector—including the "stress tests" of banks—was released in late October and made headlines by highlighting progress toward solvency and health in the banking system. But the tests also underscored concerns that many banks ...

audio Peterson Perspectives Interview A Post-Electoral Test for Brazil’s Economy
Barbara Kotschwar — October 29, 2014
Barbara Kotschwar explains that President Dilma Roussef of Brazil, reelected in a close race, must now try to revive the economy while continuing policies to help the poor.

audio Peterson Perspectives Interview Were European Bank Stress Tests a Whitewash?
Morris Goldstein — October 29, 2014
Morris Goldstein lists many shortcomings of the comprehensive assessment of banks in Europe, which he says would have found major banks lacking capital if more rigorous standards had been applied.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Why France Needs Political Reform
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — October 29, 2014
Despite recent unflattering jokes, France is not an economic basket case. Blessed with numerous competitive high value-added industries, ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Ukraine Votes for Europe and Reforms
Anders Aslund — October 28, 2014
On October 26, Ukraine held early parliamentary elections. The elections were free and fair. Six parties are entering parliament, of which three or four may join a coalition government. On the whole the results were as expected, giving the current pro-European government a strong mandate, which s ...

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Europe's Banking Union Starts on an Encouraging Note
Nicolas Véron — October 27, 2014
Sunday, October 26 was D-Day for Europe's banks: At noon in Frankfurt, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced [pdf] ...

Op-ed Arvind Subramanian Well Positioned to Guide India as It Moves into World Leadership Positions
C. Fred Bergsten — October 27, 2014
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made an inspired choice by picking Arvind Subramanian to become chief economic adviser (CEA) to the government of India.

Working Paper 14-8 Official Financial Flows, Capital Mobility, and Global Imbalances [pdf]
Tamim Bayoumi, Joseph E. Gagnon and Christian Saborowski — October 23, 2014
Tamim Bayoumi, Joseph E. Gagnon, and Christian Saborowski analyze the effect of net official flows (chiefly foreign exchange intervention) on current accounts, finding that such flows have a large but plausible effect on current account balances.

Op-ed The Trans-Pacific Partnership's Missing Ingredient
Simon Johnson — October 23, 2014
Looking for ways to stimulate economic growth and create jobs, US President Barack Obama's administration is seeking to press ahead with the megaregional free-trade deal known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). But is the United States going about it the right way?

Op-ed Marshall's Postwar Logic Holds True in Ukraine Today
Anders Aslund — October 23, 2014
Anders Åslund presents five reasons the European Union needs to develop Marshall Plan for Ukraine now.

China Economic Watch Why China No Longer Wants Cheap Coal
Ryan Rutkowski — October 21, 2014
In recent months China has enacted a number of policies with the potential to increase coal prices at home and abroad. The government called on provinces to shift away from a sales tax on the volume of coal to one on the ...

Working Paper 14-7 What Goes into a Medal: Women's Inclusion and Success at the Olympic Games [pdf]
Marcus Noland and Kevin Stahler — October 21, 2014
Marcus Noland and Kevin Stahler estimate that at its peak in the 1970s and 1980s, the East German doping program was responsible for 17 percent of the total medals awarded to women, equivalent to the total medal hauls of the US and Soviet women's teams in 1972, the last Summer Olympic Games not marred by widespread doping.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch Will Japan Bet the Farm on Agricultural Protectionism?
Kent Troutman — October 21, 2014
Talks over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade accord between the United States, Japan, and 11 other countries are at a standstill—largely because of a hardening of Japan's stance toward agricultural protection. President Obama discussed the stalled negotiations with Prime Ministe ...

NEWS RELEASE

Arvind Subramanian Arvind Subramanian Appointed Chief Economic Advisor to Indian Government


Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made an inspired choice by picking Arvind Subramanian to become chief economic adviser (CEA) to the government of India, writes C. Fred Bergsten.

RECENT EVENTS

 

Mohamed A. El-Erian

What Lies Ahead for the Global Economy: A BRICS Perspective

Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, delivered the Peterson Institute's tenth Whitman Lecture.

C. Fred Bergsten

Bridging the Pacific: Toward Free Trade and Investment between China and the United States

Coauthors C. Fred Bergsten, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, and Sean Miner present the conclusions of their latest book. Myron Brilliant, US Chamber of Commerce, provided comments.

Martin Wolf

The Shift and the Shocks: What We've Learned—and Have Still to Learn—from the Financial Crisis

Martin Wolf presents the conclusions of his new book, followed by commentary by Athanasios Orphanides and Kevin Warsh.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS



David J. Stockton discusses the global economic outlook, underperforming economies, evidence of an expanding US economy, and the problems that stand in the way of more growth.

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