Peterson Institute lobby
The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan
research institution devoted to the study of international economic policy. More › ›
RSS News Feed Search

William R. Cline finds that all four of the major economies—China, the euro area, the United States, Japan—remain close to their fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs); however, a continued decline in the euro and the yen could push the US economy to an excessive deficit. Policy Brief 14-25.

In NAFTA 20 Years Later, part of a new series of publications called PIIE Briefings, Institute scholars and experts assess the record two decades after the approval of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Roberto Alvarez and José De Gregorio analyze the resilience of Latin American countries to the global financial crisis and find that effective macroeconomic policies were key to good economic performance. Working Paper 14-11.

If the current ceasefire in the east holds, Ukraine has a great opportunity to break out of its vicious circle of economic underperformance. The new government will have to act fast and hard on many fronts to succeed. Anders Åslund lays out the strategy in Policy Brief 14-24. Åslund also testifies before the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe on how Ukraine can combat corruption and presents five reasons the European Union needs to develop a Marshall Plan for Ukraine now.

Avinash D. Persaud explains why bail-in securities are fool’s gold and do not make sense in the more common and intractable case where many banks get into trouble at roughly the same time as the assets they own go bad. Policy Brief 14-23.

Kevin Stahler and Arvind Subramanian find that there has been a deterioration, not improvement, in competitiveness in the eurozone periphery countries, and the pattern of adjustment within the eurozone between 2007 and 2013 has been dramatically perverse, with Germany's competitiveness having improved by 9 percent and Greece's having deteriorated by 9 percent. Working Paper 14-10.

David G. Blanchflower explains why the United Kingdom won't have real pay growth until 2016 at the earliest.

A New Era for Europe's Banks?

audio Were European Bank Stress Tests a Whitewash?
In a video interview, Morris Goldstein lists many shortcomings of the comprehensive assessment of banks in Europe, which he says would have found major banks lacking capital if more rigorous standards had been applied. See also: The 2014 EU-Wide Bank Stress Test Lacks Credibility

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard walks through five major conclusions of the ECB's comprehensive assessment, arguing that although the report itself instilled confidence in the banks, the information provided could stir doubts about future crises. Nicolas Véron lauds the test as an encouraging start for the most transformative policy initiative that has emerged from Europe's crisis so far. Véron however notes this banking union comes five years too late, and its comprehensiveness is certainly up for debate.

audio A Post-Electoral Test for Brazil's Economy
Barbara Kotschwar explains that President Dilma Roussef of Brazil, reelected in a close race, must now try to revive the economy while continuing policies to help the poor.

To avoid further increases in the ratio of public debt to GDP over the next decade, average annual primary deficits will need to be reduced by about 0.75 percent of GDP in the United States and by about 3 percent of GDP in Japan from their mid-2014 baselines, calculates William R. Cline. Working Paper 14-9.

Bridging the Pacific: Toward Free Trade and Investment between China and the United StatesNew Book: Bridging the Pacific: Toward Free Trade and Investment between China and the United States

by C. Fred Bergsten, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, and Sean Miner, assisted by Tyler Moran

Release Event | News Release

Korea should seek to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as soon as possible if it can manage its bilateral trade issues with Japan in a pragmatic way, write Jeffrey J. Schott and Cathleen Cimino. Simon Johnson urges the inclusion of a currency clause in the TPP agreement.

Marcus Noland and Kevin Stahler estimate that at its peak in the 1970s and 1980s, the East German doping program was responsible for 17 percent of the total medals awarded to women, equivalent to the total medal hauls of the US and Soviet women's teams in 1972, the last Summer Olympic Games not marred by widespread doping. Working Paper 14-7.

Tamim Bayoumi, Joseph E. Gagnon, and Christian Saborowski analyze the effect of net official flows (chiefly foreign exchange intervention) on current accounts, finding that such flows have a large but plausible effect on current account balances. Working Paper 14-8.

Labor and Unemployment

Labor Market Slack: Assessing and Addressing in Real Time
September 24, 2014
Keynote Speaker: Charles Evans, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Wages and Labor Market Slack: Making the Dual Mandate Operational
David G. Blanchflower and Adam S. Posen assess the impact of changes in the US labor force participation rate and show that nonparticipants exert additional downward pressure on wages over and above the impact of the unemployment rate itself.

audio Why Wage Rates are Stagnating Despite Falling Unemployment
David G. Blanchflower discusses his research with Adam S. Posen demonstrating that lower jobless rates are masking the problem of people outside the official labor force who are still looking for work.

audio Is Unemployment Worse than It Appears?
William R. Cline says the decline in labor participation, which some say has occurred because workers are discouraged from seeking jobs, is largely due to the retirement of the "baby boom" generation.
See also: Demographic versus Cyclical Influences on US Labor Force Participation

Labor Market Slack in the United Kingdom
David N. F. Bell and David G. Blanchflower examine the amount of slack in the UK labor market and find the downward adjustments made by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to both unemployment and underemployment invalid.

Managing the Euro Area Debt CrisisNew Book: Markets over Mao: The Rise of Private Business in China

by Nicholas R. Lardy

Release Event | News Release

Is China's Property Market Heading toward Collapse?
China's continuing urbanization, available policy options, and the stage of its property market development all suggest that China's property market is experiencing simply another cyclical adjustment. Policy Brief 14-21 by Li-Gang Liu.

The Federal Reserve should hold off raising interest rates for the sake of fuller employment, argues Adam S. Posen.

A single measure can free up $3 billion for debt-ridden Ukraine and send a powerful message to Russia: The UK parliament could enact a debt sanctions law making Ukraine’s $3 billion bond issued to Russia in December 2013 unenforceable as against public policy under English law. Policy Brief 14-20 by Anna Gelpern.

NAFTA at 20: Misleading Charges and Positive Achievements
The North American Free Trade Agreement between the United States, Mexico, and Canada, which took effect 20 years ago, continues to face divided public opinion. Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Cathleen Cimino, and Tyler Moran analyze the record of NAFTA in order to clear the air so that the benefits and challenges of trade can be examined objectively. Policy Brief 14-13.
See also related conference.

Edwin M. Truman traces the evolution of the Federal Reserve and its engagement with the global economy over the last three decades of the 20th century. Working Paper 14-5.

Free exports of liquefied natural gas, crude oil, and other energy products are an essential complement of US international economic policy, which has long advocated free trade in raw materials. The Obama White House should prod the Department of Energy, the Department of Commerce, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and other agencies to speed up their approvals of such exports. Policy Brief 14-19 by Cathleen Cimino and Gary Clyde Hufbauer.

By targeting some of the largest banks in Russia, the United States has limited both the state's and President Vladimir Putin's private financial prowess, while hardly any ordinary Russian savers are being hit, writes Anders Åslund.

Devesh Kapur, T. V. Somanathan and Arvind Subramanian outline the problems with land in India and offer four policy solutions to ensure land facilitates rather than impedes development.

Managing the Euro Area Debt CrisisNew Book: Managing the Euro Area Debt Crisis

by William R. Cline

Release Event | News Release

Simon Johnson testifies to Congress that the Federal Reserve Accountability and Transparency Act, as currently drafted, would impose undue and excessive constraints on the ability of officials to respond fully and in a timely manner to changing economic and financial circumstances.

Integrating China into the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) would benefit China, the United States, and Japan, writes Adam S. Posen. See also: This Is Japan's Chance to Lead TPP Talks

While manufacturing employment has steadily declined for many decades, more direct measures of manufacturing productivity show that the growth of the US manufacturing sector has actually been strong and not simply in the subsectors affected by computer production. Policy Brief 14-18 by Theodore H. Moran and Lindsay Oldenski.

David N. F. Bell and David G. Blanchflower examine the amount of slack in the UK labor market and find the downward adjustments made by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to both unemployment and underemployment invalid. Working Paper 14-2

The renminbi cannot become a true international currency until Chinese authorities drop their strict limits on capital flows between China and the rest of the world. Policy Brief 14-15 by Joseph E. Gagnon and Kent Troutman.

Although the Indian rupee continues to be undervalued by 30 percent or more, it would be risky to allow it to appreciate too much beyond the current rate, particularly given India’s continuing high inflation and the recent gains in bringing down the current account deficit from a peak of 5 percent to 2 percent, write Martin Kessler and Arvind Subramanian.

Germany's large current account surpluses have been criticized as a major cause of slower economic growth in the euro area periphery. Jacob Funk Kirkegaard argues that Germany should indeed act to reduce its current account surplus, but not for reasons that critics say. Policy Brief 14-14.

Korea should seek to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership as soon as possible if it can manage its bilateral trade issues with Japan in a pragmatic way, write Jeffrey J. Schott and Cathleen Cimino. Policy Brief 14-22.


Peterson Institute for International Economics Announces New Funding Disclosure Steps [pdf]

A newly posted document gives our Statement of Principles, Facts about Our Funding, and charts and lists indicating funding sources and amounts in 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010.



José Viñals

Global Financial Outlook: Challenges for Banks and Risks from Shadow Banks

José Viñals, financial counsellor and director of the monetary and capital markets department at the IMF, speaks at the Peterson Institute.

Patrick Low

Global Value Chains, Megaregionals, and Prospects for Multilateral Trade Cooperation

PIIE and the World Bank Group cohost a discussion with Jeffrey J. Schott and Patrick Low on multilateral trade.

Mohamed A. El-Erian

What Lies Ahead for the Global Economy: A BRICS Perspective

Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, delivered the Peterson Institute's tenth Whitman Lecture.

C. Fred Bergsten

Bridging the Pacific: Toward Free Trade and Investment between China and the United States

Coauthors C. Fred Bergsten, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, and Sean Miner present the conclusions of their latest book. Myron Brilliant, US Chamber of Commerce, provided comments.


Use filters to narrow your search through our publications and events.


Keep up to date with Peterson Institute publications, events, and interviews via email, podcast, or RSS. More information on subscription options.

Follow us

Follow us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Follow us on YouTube

Chinese Translations