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North Korea: Witness to Transformation Sharon Perry, 1949-2015
Stephan Haggard — August 29, 2015
I had the pleasure of meeting Sharon Perry a couple of times through the National Committee on North Korea, but was always impressed by the work she did with the Stanford-North Korea Tuberculosis Diagnostics Project. An epidemiologist focused on chronic infectious ...

Op-ed Why the Fed Should Postpone Rate Hikes
Anders Borg — August 28, 2015
Anders Borg cites reasons for the Fed to postpone interest rate hikes and notes the conclave in Jackson Hole would provide an ideal opportunity for the Fed to signal a shift in its policy stance.

Op-ed The United States Still Runs the World
Simon Johnson — August 28, 2015
While US monetary officials in Jackson Hole consider the global economy, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will move interest rates based almost entirely on its collective read of the US economy. Once again, the rest of the world will react to what the United States does.

China Economic Watch Which countries are most exposed to China?
Paolo Mauro and Jan Zilinsky — August 28, 2015
The recent drop in China’s stock prices has rekindled interest in the economic impact of a possible slowdown in China’s economic growth. China is now the second largest importer worldwide (closely following the United States), international trade is an important channel through which the Chinese eco ...

Op-ed Towards a Europe of Symmetry, Solidarity, and Opportunity
Angel Ubide — August 26, 2015
Europe must decide whether to consolidate the euro as a true monetary union with a federal structure built around three axes: symmetry, solidarity, and opportunity.

Trade and Investment Policy Watch PIIE Chart: Korean currency policies and TPP entry
Jeffrey J. Schott — August 26, 2015
While enforceable currency provisions will not be central to the TPP, exchange rate policies will be closely followed both in the forthcoming congressional ratification of TPP implementing legislation and in the decision whether to approve participation of new countries in the TPP. Korean officials should take heed.

China Economic Watch Nicholas Lardy: False Alarm on a Crisis in China
China Economic Watch Editor — August 26, 2015
Recent economic events in China have created turmoil in the global markets. Many economists believe that China is experiencing a financial and economic meltdown. Nicholas R. Lardy explains in an ...

Op-ed The TPP: Almost There
Jeffrey J. Schott — August 26, 2015
In the US ratification debate over TPP, look for politicians to take aim at the provisions that most affect their constituents.

Op-ed Show Steel and Raise Rates or the Financial System Will Fracture
Avinash D. Persaud — August 25, 2015
Monetary policy cannot just react to the latest inflation data if it is to promote financial stability and sustainable economic growth.

audio Peterson Perspectives Interview China Sneezes, Global Markets Get a Cold
Angel Ubide — August 24, 2015
Angel Ubide says markets are likely to remain in turmoil until economic fundamentals in China, the United States, and emerging markets become clearer.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch A Greek Election that Should Strengthen Tsipras's Hand
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard — August 21, 2015
For the third time this year, Greek voters will be going the polls, this time to elect a new Parliament on September 20 in the wake of the €86 billion bailout accord with European creditors and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's resignation. But the most likely outcome for this election will be ...

China Economic Watch Retail Sales Numbers Are Not a Reliable Indicator for Consumption Expenditure
Zixuan Huang and Nicholas Lardy — August 21, 2015
Some skeptics of China's economic data argue that the moderating growth of retail sales shows that private consumption expenditures are weakening. However, retail sales are not a good proxy for private consumption for two reasons. First, as noted i ...

audio Peterson Perspectives Interview Crisis in Brazil
Monica de Bolle — August 20, 2015
Monica de Bolle reviews the factors behind the economic turmoil in Brazil, the political corruption scandals, and President Rousseff’s reform agenda.

Policy Brief 15-13 Korea and the TPP: The Inevitable Partnership [pdf]
Jeffrey J. Schott — August 19, 2015
Korea's decision to delay joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks was a tactical mistake. As a major trading nation, it stands to reap large gains from increased trade and investment with TPP countries and should opt to join the TPP as soon as the window for entry reopens.

RealTime Economic Issues Watch "Agenda Brasil": Brazil's No Agenda Solution to the Crisis
Monica de Bolle — August 19, 2015
Hit by the lowest approval ratings in history, cornered by an increasingly hostile Congress, and faced with widespread demonstrations against her government, President Dilma Rousseff recently sealed a pact with one of the least reliable members of her flailing coalition for a sweeping set of p ...

Op-ed Why Is Inflation So Low?
Angel Ubide — August 17, 2015
Since central banks began their quantitative easing (QE) programs to counter the effects of the global financial crisis, seven long years ago, the alarm announcing the imminent arrival of inflation has been pervasive.

Working Paper 15-12 The Tradability of Services: Geographic Concentration and Trade Costs [pdf]
Antoine Gervais and J. Bradford Jensen — August 17, 2015
Antoine Gervais and J. Bradford Jensen use a unique dataset on the distribution of output and demand across regions of the United States to estimate the share of economic activity exposed to international competition and find that accounting for tradable services nearly doubles the international trade exposure of the American economy.

China Economic Watch Skeptics of China’s GDP Growth Have Not Made Their Case
Nicholas R. Lardy — August 14, 2015
Criticizing Chinese data has long been a pastime of those who are skeptical that China has racked up the strongest and longest period of economic growth in recorded history. The skeptics, quote ...


Catherine L. Mann

OECD Study on the Future of Productivity

OECD Chief Economist Catherine L. Mann presents her groundbreaking study on productivity, followed by comments from CEA Chairman Jason Furman.


Has Productivity Outstripped Wage Growth?

Robert Z. Lawrence argues that, contrary to a widespread perception of lagging wage growth, constant dollar labor compensation for all US workers has kept pace with output when appropriately measured from 1970 to 2000, and perhaps to as late as 2008.



China Sneezes, Global Markets Get a Cold

Angel Ubide says markets are likely to remain in turmoil until economic fundamentals in China, the United States, and emerging markets become clearer.

Crisis in Brazil

Monica de Bolle reviews the factors behind the economic turmoil in Brazil, the political corruption scandals, and President Rousseff's reform agenda.

Does China's Currency Decline Portend an Economic Downturn?

Nicholas R. Lardy says that economic indicators suggest that China's growth rate remains stable at 7 percent despite the latest market pessimism.

TPP Talks: Getting to Yes

Jeffrey J. Schott explains why trade negotiators for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) are hopeful they can complete a deal by early September, clearing the way for a presidential signoff by Christmas.

Sanctions on Iran: Why They Worked and Why a 'Snapback' May Not Work

Gary Clyde Hufbauer explains that economic sanctions on Iran resulted from complex financial and diplomatic activity by Washington, complicating the challenge should sanctions have to be reimposed.

Will Greece Make It After All?

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard and Edwin M. Truman offer cautiously optimistic and cautiously pessimistic views respectively about Greece's prospects for recovery and growth following another bailout.


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