For the Obama Administration
Memo to the President-elect and the 111th Congress
A blue-ribbon panel of former high-ranking US government officials and other trade experts, chaired by C. Fred Bergsten, urges President-elect Obama and Congress to completely rethink US trade policy.
Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues
Jeffrey J. Schott assesses the Obama team's trade agenda as it prepares for the rising threat of global protectionism.
Audio | Transcript
Adam S. Posen argues that if the Obama team structures its stimulus package properly, it can have a significant effect on the economy.
Audio | Transcript
Financial Crisis in Focus
C. Fred Bergsten and Raymond C. Offenheiser call on the Obama administration and the US Congress to embrace open trade and enact the domestic policy forms, particularly universal health care, needed to strengthen workers' safety net.
Edwin M. Truman looks at the recent history of IMF reform and provides recommendations to the incoming Obama administration on how to restore the IMF's position as a central multilateral institution of the world economy. Working Paper 08-11.
The global economic crisis provides the United States and China with an opportunity to work together to combat climate change, says Trevor Houser.
Adam Posen and David Smick recommend disenfranchising the major rating agencies in order to promote the development of more robust, private risk-assessment services.
Anders Åslund argues that Russia must abandon its pegged exchange rate policy in order to reduce rampant speculation and the hasty depletion of its currency reserves.
Peterson Perspectives Interviews
with Michael Mussa | Transcript
with Simon Johnson | Transcript
with Edwin M. Truman
with Leszek Balcerowicz
Adam Posen's Restoring Japan's Economic Growth is a "must read" for how fiscal policy works in a liquidity trap (see chapter 2), says Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman.
Protectionism resulting from the financial crisis will force India to do its part to maintain an open, global trading system, argues Arvind Subramanian.
RealTime Economic Issues Watch:
The Global Financial Crisis
Views updated daily on the current crisis in global financial markets, its impact on the real economy, and the public policy choices confronting the United States and other countries.
Steven Weisman argues that the New York City fiscal crisis of the 1970s illustrates the danger of allowing the Detroit automakers to go bankrupt.
Simon Johnson and Peter Boone argue that the Troubled Asset Rescue Plan is no longer succeeding in stabilizing markets and spell out the government's options.
Simon Johnson gives President-elect Obama 5 pieces of advice for restoring the US economy and testifies before Congress with recommendations for a stimulus package.
Morris Goldstein recommends that the IMF revive the Compensatory Financing Facility to help emerging markets that are suffering from the current crisis.
Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Howard F. Rosen, and Jisun Kim augment Okun's original misery index, a combination of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate, by adding a housing price index.
Simon Johnson sees more rough weather, a recession that could last years, and more need for urgent action by the United States and its global partners in a website audio interview.
>> Transcript
Anders Åslund argues that while policymakers may not repeat the mistakes of the Great Depression, they must avoid making new errors that exacerbate the global financial crisis.
The G-20 and the Crisis
While the G-20 summit was moderately successful on many issues, Simon Johnson writes that some items on the regulatory agenda may worsen the global economic slowdown. Il SaKong, special economic advisor to the South Korean president, provides an insider's view of the summit at an Institute event. C. Fred Bergsten says G-20 leaders must build on previous efforts to counter the downturn in the world economy by developing a globally coordinated response to the crisis.
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott advocate using the WTO as a monitor to ensure that the G-20’s trade policies match their commitment to abstain from protectionist measures. Robert Z. Lawrence urges the G-20 leaders to strengthen their commitment to avoid protectionism by pledging to forgo domestic subsidies and completing the Doha Round.
Morris Goldstein presents his 10-point financial regulatory reform plan at an Institute event.
Adam S. Posen last year warned of the financial risks in Europe now being realized, and of the limits on Germany's long-term sustainable growth. See also "The Four Horsemen of Subprime Stupidity."
>> See also Hot Topic: Global Financial Crisis
Jeffrey J. Schott argues that NAFTA should be updated to respond to changes in the world economy and the lessons learned from more recent trade negotiations. See also NAFTA's Bad Rap.
Marcus Noland finds that UN sanctions against North Korea following the country's nuclear test had no perceptible effect on trade with its two largest trading partners, China and South Korea. Working Paper 08-12.
The accountability and transparency of China's management of its international assets has been deficient, according to Edwin M. Truman.
New Book: China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities
C. Fred Bergsten, Charles Freeman, Nicholas R. Lardy, and Derek J. Mitchell
>> Event: Book Release | Interview with Lardy
Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues
Howard Rosen explains why traditional approaches to helping the unemployed need to be overhauled in light of recent trends in globalization, technology, and business management.
Audio | Transcript
Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues
I. M. Destler says it is unlikely that there will be a quick congressional approval of the Colombia free trade agreement as part of an economic stimulus package in a website audio interview.
>> Transcript
Robert Z. Lawrence argues that Congress should use import duties on imported oil to promote the development of more fuel-efficient vehicles and technologies.
While Canada and the United States grapple with climate-change laws at the federal level, states and Canadian provinces are stepping in with their own initiatives to fill the gap. Gary Clyde Hufbauer testifies that the United States might better address climate change goals through international negotiations at the climate conference in Copenhagen next year and in the WTO rather than through unilateral trade measures. See also Leveling the Carbon Playing Field.
News Release: Peterson Institute Opens Media Center
Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues
Anders Åslund, noting recent difficulties in the Russian economy, predicts political and economic troubles for Putin and Russian leaders if the price of oil does not rebound in 2009.
Audio | Transcript
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard analyzes recent developments in US and regional NAFTA trade in computer and information services, with particular emphasis on their modes of supply. Working Paper 08-10.
Marcus Noland surveys the history of telecommunications policy in North Korea and assesses the chances that the recent deal between the government and the Egyptian company, Orascom will succeed in modernizing the country’s telecommunications service. North Korea's grain balance has gone into deficit for the first time since the 1990s famine, and prices have also risen sharply.
A fundamental shift is taking place in the world economy to which the multilateral trading system has failed to adapt. Working Paper 08-8 by Aaditya Mattoo and Arvind Subramanian.
New Book: Banking on Basel: The Future of International Financial Regulation by Daniel K. Tarullo
>> Event: Book Release
Global Economic Prospects
The world economy is and will remain in a period of slower growth and moderating but still high inflation—a situation of mild global stagflation, forecasts Michael Mussa. Arvind Subramanian presents the economic outlook for emerging markets.
New Book: Challenges of Globalization: Imbalances and Growth
Anders Åslund and Marek Dabrowski
Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues
Edwin M. Truman analyzes both the key concerns raised by sovereign wealth funds and the essential measures required to alleviate those concerns.
Audio | Transcript
Financial repression—low and now negative real return on deposits—in China costs households $36 billion and is posing substantial risks to China's economy, writes Nicholas R. Lardy. Policy Brief 08-8.
America's Gains from Globalization
Gary Clyde Hufbauer answers critics who question US gains from globalization.
Paper | Summary
Most viewed pages for the past 7 days.
Paper
Global Economic Prospects 2008/2009: Hoping for a Global Slowdown and a US Recession
Michael Mussa
Peterson Perspective Economic Outlook for 2009
Michael Mussa
Paper
The Management of China's International Reserves and Its Sovereign Wealth Funds
Edwin M. Truman
Testimony The Current Account Deficit and the US Economy
C. Fred Bergsten
Testimony The Economic Outlook and Options for Stimulus
Simon Johnson
Speech
Did the Washington Consensus Fail?
John Williamson
Event China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities
Memo Memo to the President-elect and the 111th Congress [pdf]
Speech Globalization: The Concept, Causes, and Consequences
John Williamson
Op-ed Crisis Puts Putinomics to the Test
Anders Åslund
Most recently posted material.
Paper
The Augmented Misery Index: Better Outlook in the Second Half of 2008
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jisun Kim—December 31, 2008
In November 2008, we presented our augmented misery index, which adds the change in housing prices to Okun's original index. (The original index combined the inflation rate and the unemployment rate.) We have now updated the augmented misery index for the second half of 2008. Compared to the first half of 2008, our augmented misery index improved sharply, dropping from 24.2 in the first half to 8.1 in the second half.
Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues
Russia's Dire Economic Condition
Anders Åslund—December 31, 2008
Anders Åslund, noting recent difficulties in the Russian economy, predicts political and economic troubles for Putin and Russian leaders if the price of oil does not rebound in 2009.
Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues
Economic Outlook for 2009
Michael Mussa—December 30, 2008
Michael Mussa, surveying the record of 10 American recessions since World War II, suggests that there is a good chance of recovery as early as the end of 2009.
Op-ed
Crisis Puts Putinomics to the Test
Anders Åslund—December 24, 2008
Suddenly, Russia stands out as one of the countries likely to be worst hit by the international financial crisis, although it entered the crisis with huge budget and current account surpluses since 2000 and the third-largest currency reserves in the world. It would be unfair to blame only international markets, as Prime Minister Vladimir Putin does, considering how flawed his own economic policy is.
Article
Disenfranchise the Ratings Agencies [pdf]
Adam S. Posen and David Smick—December 24, 2008
While the House Oversight Committee's hearing on the credit rating agencies has uncovered numerous examples of fraud and error, the outrage distracts from the real issue: Reliance on the rating agencies is harmful to the stability of the financial system. Not only are the agencies' ratings of securities opaque, they are often outright wrong or useless. But investors are not allowed to ignore these ratings because they are entrenched in the regulatory framework. Disenfranchising the rating agencies from this role would lead to the creation of smaller, more agile private firms whose success would depend solely on the accuracy of their predictions—surely a win for investors and efficient markets alike.
Op-ed
From Financial Folly to Trade Troubles?
Arvind Subramanian—December 24, 2008
If 2008 was the year of finance, 2009 could well be the year of trade. If 2008 was dominated by commodity prices (which soared in the first half) and equity prices (which collapsed in the second), events in 2009 will be influenced by the fortunes of currency prices, especially the dollar.
Op-ed
Finding Agreement on Climate in a Crisis
Trevor Houser—December 23, 2008
Poznan, Poland—The current economic crisis casts a pall over climate-change talks held this month in Poland. While negotiators hoped for concrete progress toward an international climate agreement, the world's two largest polluters were distracted—the United States with preventing a collapse of the financial system in the midst of a presidential transition, China with a slowdown in domestic investment and weakening foreign demand for its manufactured goods. With American home values and retirement savings falling and Chinese unemployment numbers rising, observers worry that neither America nor China will have much appetite to cut emissions.
Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues
The Impact of a Fiscal Stimulus Program
Adam S. Posen—December 23, 2008
Adam S. Posen argues that if the Obama team structures its stimulus package properly, it can have a significant effect on the economy.
Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues
Preserving the Global Trading System
Jeffrey J. Schott—December 22, 2008
Jeffrey J. Schott assesses the Obama team's trade agenda as they prepare for the rising threat of global protectionism.
Working Paper 08-12
The (Non) Impact of UN Sanctions on North Korea [pdf]
Marcus Noland—December 19, 2008
This study finds that North Korea's nuclear test and the imposition of UN Security Council sanctions have
had no perceptible effect on North Korea's trade with its two largest partners, China and South Korea. Before
North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test, it was widely believed that such an event would have
cataclysmic diplomatic ramifications. However, beginning with visual inspection of data and ending with
time-series models, no evidence is found to support the notion that these events have had any effect on North Korea's trade with its two principal partners.
In retrospect, North Korea may have calculated quite correctly that the direct penalties for establishing itself
as a nuclear power would be modest (or, alternatively, put such a high value on demonstrating its nuclear
capability that it outweighed the downside risks, however large). If sanctions are to deter behavior in the
future, they will have to be much more enthusiastically implemented.
